Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
